Big Global Corporations’ Taxes Could Double, Morgan Stanley Says (06/15/2021)

The largest global corporations might collectively see their tax obligations double if countries can agree on a minimum rate to charge them as part of a worldwide overhaul, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.
About 400 companies currently facing a median tax level of about 8% could be subjected to a floor of 15% that Group of Seven leaders agreed to earlier this month, the researchers led by strategist Todd Castagno wrote in a report released on Tuesday.
Internet and direct marketing, technology hardware, entertainment, hospitality, financial and utility companies could all be affected, they said.
“In theory, a 15% minimum would nearly double the aggregate tax burden of
this group, without considering other base variables, exemptions, etc.,” the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.
Corporations based in the U.S., Cayman Island, Canada, Bermuda, Taiwan and Japan could be most exposed to tax hikes if minimum levies are adopted globally, according to the report. The researchers cautioned that many specifics of a worldwide deal have not yet been finalized, meaning any final plans could vary widely from these findings.
The Morgan Stanley analysis highlights the potential impact of global negotiations that seek to end a decades-long race-to-the-bottom for taxes. In addition to a 15% minimum rate, negotiators from roughly 140 countries are seeking to define new rules that would impose levies on profits where customers are located to prevent corporations from booking income where such charges are lowest.
Read More: Global Tax Proposal May Hit Tech Hardware, Morgan Stanley Says
Subsequent to the G-7 agreement, global leaders are working toward consensus on a more specific plan at a Group of 20 meeting in July, though a final accord might only be achievable in October or later.
“The complexity of an agreement, particularly around the scope, political support for increased taxation of certain industries, and potential tax revenue losses to other countries post COVID, could be challenging,” the Morgan Stanley analysts said. “We see a period of turbulence near term, likely leading to some compromises.”
摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）分析師表示，如果各國能夠就最低稅率達成一致，作為全球改革的一部分，全球最大的公司可能會集體看到其稅收義務翻倍。
戰略家托德·卡斯塔尼奧（Todd Castagno）領導的研究人員在周二發佈的一份報告中寫道，目前面臨約8%的中位稅率的約400家公司可能面臨七國集團（G7）領導人本月早些時候同意的15%的稅率下限。
他們說，互聯網和直銷、技術硬體、娛樂、酒店、金融和公用事業公司都可能受到影響。
“從理論上講，最低 15% 將幾乎是總稅負的兩倍。
摩根士丹利分析師寫道：「這個群體沒有考慮其他基本變數、豁免等。
報告稱，如果全球採用最低稅率，美國、開曼群島、加拿大、百慕達、臺灣和澳州的公司可能面臨最大的增稅風險。研究人員提醒說，全球交易的許多細節尚未最後敲定，這意味著任何最終計劃都可能與這些發現大相徑庭。
摩根士丹利（MorganStanley）的分析突顯出全球談判的潛在影響，這些談判旨在結束長達數十年的稅收競爭。除了15%的最低稅率外，來自大約140個國家的談判代表正在尋求制定新規則，對客戶所在地區的利潤徵稅，以防止公司在此類費用最低的情況下預訂收入。
閱讀更多：摩根士丹利表示，全球稅收提案可能會打擊科技硬體
在七國集團達成協議後，全球領導人正在努力爭取在 7 月 20 國集團會議上就一項更具體的計畫達成共識，儘管最終協議可能要到 10 月或更晚才能達成。
摩根士丹利分析師表示：“協議的複雜性，尤其是協議的範圍、對某些行業增加稅收的政治支持，以及 CO VID 協議後其他國家稅收收入的潛在損失，可能具有挑戰性。”“我們認爲近期會有一段動盪時期，可能會導致一些妥協。